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Modelling the expected increase in demand for particle radiotherapy: implications for the UK

¹ Department of Clinical Oncology, Queen Elizabeth University Hospital, Edgbaston, Birmingham B45 8TB, ² Academic Department of Radiotherapy, The Christie Hospital, Manchester, ³ University of Cambridge Department of Clinical Oncology, Oncology Centre, Addenbrookes Hospital, Hills Road, Cambridge CB2 2QQ and ⁴ Northern Centre for Cancer Treatment, Newcastle General Hospital, Newcastle upon Tyne NE4 6BE, UK

View larger version (21K): [in a new window]   Figure 1. Estimated numbers of UK patients referred abroad per year assuming an immediate capacity elsewhere to accept all referrals up to a limit of 12 000 per year and that 15 patients annually are initially referred abroad. Variations in the rate of change parameter (R) are shown. Equation 1 is used to generate this graph (see Appendix).

View larger version (21K): [in a new window]   Figure 2. Estimated changes in international treatment capacity (KT) with time. The estimates are based on the present number of approximately 4000 patients per year worldwide. Equation 2 (see Appendix) is used to generate this graph. The rate of change of treatment capacity, r, is varied.

View larger version (22K): [in a new window]   Figure 3. Estimated annual numbers of UK patients referred abroad and influenced by variable changes in treatment capacity (KT) with time. Variations of the growth in referral rates of 20–100% per year are shown. This graph is produced by use of Equation 1 with the capacity K replaced by the function for KT, as given in Equation 2, where the variable r is assumed to be 3% per year (see Appendix).