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Analysis of benefit:risk ratio and mortality reduction for the UK Breast Screening Programme

¹ Regional Medical Physics Department, Newcastle General Hospital, Newcastle-upon-Tyne NE4 6BE, UK and ² Departments of Pathology and Radiology, Massachusetts General Hospital and Department of Pathology, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA USA

A quantitative analysis has been performed to predict the benefit:risk ratio and associated mortality reduction for the UK National Health Service Breast Screening Programme. The analysis is based on the results of an established biological simulation method coupled with dosimetric information and population statistics applicable to the UK breast screening programme. As well as the general breast screening population, the benefit:risk ratios for specific subgroups of women thought to be at higher risk are estimated. The effects of alterations in screening strategy are also investigated. The results indicate favourable benefit:risk ratios and mortality reductions for all women in the programme, with a breast cancer mortality reduction of approximately 9% over the whole UK female population, equivalent to a breast cancer mortality reduction in the region of 25% for the age range 55–69 years.